In fact there are two
parts to that question. Will the new foiling boats, their technology
really only race course tested over the last eighteen months, prove
reliable enough to make it to the finish? With five top skippers on
foils the consensus is that the winner will be one of them, if they make
it to the finish. If it is not a foiling boat then the choice tapers to
2004-5 Vendée Globe winner Vincent Riou on PRB or Yann Eliès on
Quéguiner-Leucémie Espoir.
On
paper, based on recent results and past history in the race, the
strength and depth of his programme backed by Banque Populaire, drive,
talent, experience and ability to sustain high speeds around the world,
one theoretical favourite to win is Armel Le Cléac’h. He has finished
second twice in the last two Vendée Globes, three hours and 17 minutes
behind François Gabart in 2013. Le Cléac’h won this year’s Transat,
finished second in the Transat Jacques Vabre last year. He has prepared
meticulously and has proven fast and consistent in all of his races
since 2013. His foil package and optimisation has been well managed in
terms of the compromise between pushing for a late technical advantage
versus tested reliability. He has the boat and the skillset.
But
so too British skipper Alex Thomson on Hugo Boss, Sébastien Josse on
Edmond de Rothschild, Jean Pierre Dick on StMichel-Virbac and Jéremie
Beyou on Maître CoQ have the capability and the hardware that it takes
to win. Starting his fourth Vendée Globe, Alex Thomson has never been
better equipped to win. “I think this time represents Alex’s best chance
of winning. He has the boat and the experience. With these foiling
boats it will take a skipper of particular ability to drive hard and I
think Alex, for one, has that,” commented Mike Golding, three times
Vendée Globe skipper with his 2004-5 third place as his high water mark.
Thomson’s
boat is considered the most extreme of the latest generation boats.
Although his foil package has not reached the development level he had
wanted to be at, he believes he has a good balance between tested
reliability and speed potential. But, having trained in splendid
isolation as the lone Brit in the race, he has no recent benchmarks
against the best of the French, nor do they have against him. He lead
the summer’s New York Vendée race. “The New York Vendee was our only
chance to measure ourselves against the others.”
Thomson said today.“It
showed us we had the speed but we had a reliability problem which we
have now solved. I feel confident in the speed but we train in England
only and then in Portugal in August in good winds. Often we would like
to train with the French guys and see where we are and how they compare.
And I am sure they would like to know how fast we are, what our
strengths and weaknesses are. We will just have to wait and see.”
“Our foil systems are very different to the other boats. On our foils the shaft is doing the work (lifting the hull) and on the others the tip is doing the work. And so we expect to see some differences between the foiling boats and at times that difference can be significant. It will be very interesting to see our strengths and weaknesses."
“Our foil systems are very different to the other boats. On our foils the shaft is doing the work (lifting the hull) and on the others the tip is doing the work. And so we expect to see some differences between the foiling boats and at times that difference can be significant. It will be very interesting to see our strengths and weaknesses."
Thomson revealed that he has a watch
which gives him an electric shock to ensure he wakes from his sleep
periods. His particular worry is straying into the forbidden ice
exclusion zone and being penalised. “The difference in having this
exclusion zone is that this will force us to sail VMG down the line. And
so the difficulty for us is the possibility of crossing the exclusion
line, they have already told us the penalties. The penalties are big.
You must exit at that point or west of it. It is something that I know
all the skippers are very nervous about. It is very easy when you sail
close to the line and for example when you are tired and you maybe don’t
wake up, then that is why I have a watch that when I set the alarm
gives me an electric shock to combat the possibility of over-sleeping.”
The 24,020 NMs race is more often than
not a rich get richer race. The expectation is that the foilers will
leap away from Sunday’s start on the heels of a forecast for weather
that could not be better. A fast passage to the Equator for the foilers,
routing suggests 6 to 7 days on the current weather models. Theirs
should be a drag race, but just as with foil borne racing inshore, any
breakaway at the front of the foiling ‘peloton’ can quickly see a big
gap open, and perhaps become decisive.
There are around ten skippers who might make it on to the podium. The reality of not having to go out into the teeth of a Bay of Biscay storm, instead getting a relatively straightforward passage to Finisterre and into the Portuguese trade winds – the favourable scenario painted by the current weather outlook – should at least reduce the number of early failures caused by the fierce weather.
There are around ten skippers who might make it on to the podium. The reality of not having to go out into the teeth of a Bay of Biscay storm, instead getting a relatively straightforward passage to Finisterre and into the Portuguese trade winds – the favourable scenario painted by the current weather outlook – should at least reduce the number of early failures caused by the fierce weather.
Of
the first timers both rookies Paul Meilhat on SMA and Morgan Lagravière
on Safran had their setbacks in their preparation but both have since
regained their confidence since. A talented youngster Lagravière has
been helped by Roland Jourdain and is definitely one to watch. Jérémie
Beyou is the only sailor to have fitted foils to an older generation
IMOCA. A fierce competitor, he hopes this will allow him to be up there
with the frontrunners.
Quotes
Vincent Riou (PRB): “People keep talking
about my victory in 2004-2005, but with each Vendée Globe the counter
is reset. It’s different each time and has nothing to do with the
previous one. Even the best skippers remain humble and say that their
main goal is to finish.”
Jean-Pierre Dick (StMichel-Virbac): “Out
of the 29, around half of the fleet stands out from the other half.
There are around ten very competitive projects, who are difficult to
beat. With so much competition, it’s going to be interesting. I think
the fleet will be tightly bunched with the leaders all close together,
if there isn’t too much serious damage.”
Yann Eliès (Quéguiner-Leucémie Espoir):
“The foilers may make their getaway, leaving us just the crumbs. I’m
getting ready for that in my head. I am ailing for the podium, with the
aim of finishing one minute before the boat in fourth place.”
Jean Le Cam (Finistère Mer Vent): “I’m
up in the top 10 or 12 on paper. There waere likely to be five out in
front, so I could make it to 6th or 7th. However, this line up is
nothing like the one we saw in 2008, when there were 19 new boats. This
time, there are 7 or 8 boats capable of winning and no more.”
Kojiro Shiraishi (Spirit of Yukoh): “I’m
aiming for the top. There are a lot of boats from the same generation
as mine, launched in 2007.It’s going to be a race within the race, so I
can’t wait to get out there. Jean Le Cam and Tanguy de Lamotte are going
to my serious rivals.”
Didac
Costa (One Planet One Ocean): “My goal is to finish. What’s interesting
this year is the number of boats. With 29 IMOCAs, there are going to be
races within the race, which is very motivating? I’ll be sailing
against boats from the same generation as mine.” (www.vendeeglobe.org)
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